Home › Forums › AFRICAN CRISIS-JAN LAMPRECHT › IMPORTANT ANALYSIS: S.Africa Total Electric Grid Collapse is about 4 years away – This year we’ll hit Stage 10 Blackouts – My Analysis-AFRICAN CRISIS-JAN LAMPRECHT
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2023-02-09 at 01:23 #392637Nat QuinnKeymaster
[This is the best analysis I could find that’s been published recently about the state of our electric grid. Hidden in here is a very important fact. The White guy who is quoted in here says that we will not have a TOTAL GRID collapse at least in the next 3 years … which means that a TOTAL GRID COLLAPSE is possible from 4+ years onward!!! He is also talking about Stage 8 and Stage 10. Those stages will result in rolling Blackouts hitting us that are anything from 14 to 18 hours long – depending on the severity. But it seems to me as if this year, we will have days with at least 14 hours of no electricity. We are getting ever closer to the point where Mobile phone systems will begin switching off, and where the Internet could go down. It doesn’t seem as if we are quite there yet … but we’re going to get closer to it. At a certain point all sorts of normal things will cease to work properly. Deep freezes will defrost, and mobile phones will stop working. I think we’ll still be OK with regard to Internet outages. It should not be too bad. The worst time will be in winter in July. However, it is also very clear from this expert that the grid is going down and getting worse and the Government can’t save anything. This adds to my own assessment that EVERY YEAR WILL BE WORSE THAN THE YEAR BEFORE until the Eskom Grid itself collapses. What I like about this scenario, which is the most likely scenario, is that by the time the Eskom grid collapses, we will have pockets of people and certain companies who will already be in a situation where they can function for a month without Eskom electricity. For Whites, each worsening year brings us closer to a FAILED STATE and closer to FREEDOM. It forces us to become more independent. This is actually fantastic. These worthless scum who rule us are losing ever more of a grip on the situation. That’s wonderful. So you have about 3 years to prepare for a total grid collapse. Jan]
This was a note I sent to my friends and family:
This is the best answer I could find to the load shedding outlook for the rest of the year. It looks as if going above stage 8 is an almost certainty and that means 14 hours without power – this will be in winter. But theoretically, in a worst case scenario even 9 or 10 is possible. That means the upper limit is 17 hours without power a day. Furthermore, this article says that we won’t have a TOTAL COLLAPSE for the next 3 years … but he says each year is worse and will get even worse. To me this article is the best of all, and it’s recent, from less than a month ago:https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/656993/warning-over-stage-10-load-shedding-and-what-it-means-for-south-africa/#:~:text=Eskom’s%20official%20load%20shedding%20stages,hours%20of%20blackouts%20a%20day
So this means, 4 years from now we could have a TOTAL collapse. That makes a lot of sense. But this winter, we could hit 14 hours off a day, or maybe even 18 hours in a worst case scenario.
I don’t see how with the f*cking clown show that we have in this country, with all the corruption, and politics, etc, etc – how any of this can improve under any conditions. For this to change, the system ITSELF must change – WHICH IT WON’T. So this gives us some kind of goal to prepare for. We have 3 years to prepare for total collapse. Furthermore when collapse happens, IT DOES SO WITHOUT WARNING. It is impossible to warn of a grid collapse. It will happen without any warning whatsoever. Then you get the knock-on effect of: Mobile phones will start dying within 6 hours (in the city) – but perhaps faster in the rural areas. The next question is at what stage do we lose the Internet.
Here’s the original article:-
Warning over ‘stage 10’ load shedding – and what it means for South Africa
17 January 2023
Energy expert at Hohm Energy, Matthew Cruise, says that South Africa is likely to hit beyond stage 8 load shedding, warning that, contrary to promises from the national government, the power crisis in the country is unlikely to abate any time soon.
Speaking to 702 on Tuesday (17 January), Cruise said that there is a 50% likelihood that South Africa will hit stage 8 load shedding in some form or another from July, as the country moves into its winter peak.
“In July, we have our winter peak demand that takes place, and demand on the grid is between 32,000 and 34,000 megawatts,” he said.
Currently, summer demand on the grid is between 26,000 and 28,000MW, and this is already not being met by Eskom, with the country being thrust into high levels of load shedding, including non-stop stage 6 load shedding for almost a full week.
“Just by nature of seasonality, there will be an extra 4,000 MW that will be demanded by the nation that will be unmet,” Cruise said. ” If you add that to the current levels of load shedding, it’s clear we’re going to go to stage 8 and beyond – even so far as stage 10.”
“Stage 10 is definitely a distinct possibility,” he said.
Eskom’s official load shedding stages only go as high as stage 8. At stage 8 load shedding, 8,000MW is shed from the national grid, resulting in up to 14 hours of blackouts a day. This is what municipalities have had a plan for since 2018 when the schedules were revised.
As of January 2023, load shedding has only ‘officially’ hit stage 6 – but economists have argued that the reality of the situation is that the country has already moved beyond that level when considering load curtailment and the agreements in place for big industries to switch off during emergencies.
According to Cruise, while stage 8 was given to consumers and municipalities as the maximum the country could get to when the schedules were rejigged in 2018, in reality, the stages are completely arbitrary.
“There’s no other reason why it was set to stage 8 specifically – as if there is an upper limit. It was arbitrary,” he said.
Theoretically, South Africa could go up to stage 20 load shedding, if that’s how much power is removed from the grid, Cruise said.
“Each stage represents 1,000MW, so if we were unable to serve 20,000MW of power, that would be ‘stage 20’,” he said.
“What would happen if that (stage 20) were to take place? All loads representing load to the grid would be removed from the grid so that it could be maintained and the power stations could continue to power the lines and each other.
“They would move to an idling state where they could power the power stations and keep the lines active,” he said.
Eskom previously explained that if capacity issues go beyond stage 8, it is currently up to the System Operator to make specific determinations, per province, for how much additional power needs to be pulled from the grid.
Energy expert Professor Anton Eberhard has also given a more detailed explanation of what blackout conditions would look like and what South Africa would need to do to protect the grid.
However, Eskom stressed said that load shedding is used as a last resort to prevent a nationwide blackout.
If South Africa were to suffer a complete blackout, the country would be left in the dark for weeks.
“If preventative measures, including load shedding, are insufficient – the national grid will collapse. A blackout is unforeseen, and therefore, the System Operator will not be able to make an announcement in advance,” Eskom said.
“A national blackout will have massive implications, and every effort is made to prevent this from occurring. Depending on the nature of the emergency, it could take a few weeks for the grid to recover from a blackout.”
According to Cruise, it is unlikely that a South Africa-wide blackout would take place for at least the next three years.
“But I do see us going above stage 8 load shedding – because it’s just an arbitrary level,” he said. “And I don’t see it getting better next year or the year after that, unfortunately.”
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