In solving Eskom’s threat to SA’s future, time is not on Ramaphosa’s side — he must act now

[Nat Quinn]

While President Cyril Ramaphosa seems to be in a technically strong political position, there is a growing feeling he is still paralysed. Even though he may believe our energy crisis is a national disaster, he is yet to publish any real, concrete plan to improve the situation.

For the moment, there is no public explanation for the President’s apparent paralysis. The longer Ramaphosa goes without implementing a Cabinet reshuffle and any other energetic moves, or at least explaining the delay, the weaker he looks.

Last Thursday, Ramaphosa used the biggest possible stage to announce that he was declaring a National State of Disaster over the load shedding crisis. It was clearly designed to show that he and his government were giving this crisis their utmost attention and that it was their central priority.

And yet, six days since that announcement, no regulations have been published under the National State of Disaster.

In other words, despite this announcement, nothing has changed regarding Eskom, the grid or energy policy since the moment Ramaphosa started reading his State of the Nation Address.

Despite the words uttered in his speech, his government has done nothing.

It gets worse.

There is, as yet, no Minister of Electricity in the Presidency, despite Ramaphosa’s announcement of such a post last week.

It goes still deeper than that.

It is not yet clear how regulations under the National State of Disaster will actually be drafted.

Will they be drawn up by Cogta Minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, who signs them into law?

Will it be Energy Minister Gwede Mantshe?

Or Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan?

Or will there be a committee, or another body with “Command” in its title, a word for which both the ANC and EFF harbour a special fondness?

If there is a committee, would it be just the latter two ministers or would Dlamini Zuma join them, as she would be the person who has to sign the regulations?

And then, there is the glaring absence of the appointed electricity minister. It would appear to make little sense to draw up and publish the regulations without this person. If they — as the Presidency says — will take ultimate responsibility for dealing with the problem, it surely makes little sense to introduce the disaster regulations before the appointment is made.

But if this is the case, could that mean that the regulations will only be drawn up after this person has been appointed? It would obviously take some time to assume that office and only then be involved in drafting the  regulations.

Could it be that it will take a while before the first regulations are published? In other words, could Ramaphosa have announced a National State of Disaster over an issue which is so urgent that the first regulations will only emerge, say, a full month later?

---

---

The political question of the year

This suggests that Ramaphosa’s plan has not been fully thought through.

Within all of this is perhaps the political question of the year so far: Why has Ramaphosa not carried out his Cabinet reshuffle, despite everyone knowing that it must happen?

It is not clear what the reason for the delay is. Even the ANC wants this reshuffle to happen. In the past, the most important person in the party for a President has been the secretary-general. Fikile Mbalula is one of those who wants the reshuffle to happen. And it cannot be that there is any opposition in Luthuli House to this move.

In fact, it may be, as the Sunday Times reported over the weekend, that some in the party are now growing anxious that he has still not reshuffled his Cabinet.

Unfortunately for Ramaphosa, the situation over the National State of Disaster may pose more problems. At least two organisations, the DA and Solidarity, are going to court to challenge the decision to make this declaration. It could even be that organisations representing constituencies almost across our entire political spectrum challenge this decision.

And it is not unlikely that they will win.

Even before an outcome to this case, embarrassing information could emerge. It has already been stated publicly that, in fact, Ramaphosa received legal advice against making this declaration. No doubt the organisations challenging his decision will request what lawyers call the “record of decision” — all of the documents considered before making it.

It is possible that the documentation will show that Ramaphosa then went against the legal advice.

All of this suggests that Ramaphosa has fallen into a classic political trap. Like many other political leaders in many countries, he has to be seen to take urgent action. And to respond to this need, he declared a National State of Disaster.

But this now requires real action in the real world, which he and his government may not be able to deliver. While the nature of our electricity crisis is such that dealing with it is complicated; having no plan, or no plan which can be implemented soon, will only make it that much worse.

Now Ramaphosa may be in a trap of his own making. Despite this, he does appear to have the political power to still take urgent action.

He could appoint a Minister of Electricity in the Presidency immediately, and give them a tight deadline to draft and publish the regulations. He could put the other ministers involved in this, Mantashe, Gordhan and Dlamini Zuma, on terms, telling the public that he has instructed them to act.

And he could then ensure that they stick to those deadlines.

Were he to do this, he could once more gain political momentum.

There is a reason why so many in the commentariat and in business have reacted so badly to his announcements, and why the rand has weakened so badly in response to his speech. It is because faith in Ramaphosa is melting quicker than the ice in fridges in load shedding Stage 6. And every new day with no National State of Disaster regulations, without a Minister of Electricity and other real-world moves keeps swelling the ranks of the apostates.

 

In solving Eskom’s threat to SA’s future, time is not o… (dailymaverick.co.za)

[Author]

Posts