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Prepare for dark days in South Africa
Eskom’s 2025 energy availability factor ranged between 54% and 59%, which sparked warnings that South Africans should prepare for load-shedding in winter.
Energy analyst Chris Yelland published Eskom’s latest performance data, which raised concerns about the power utility’s stability.
This performance data includes Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF), planned maintenance outage (PCLF) and unplanned outage (UCLF).
The Eskom EAF for the 2025 calendar year to date varied from a minimum of 54.22% to a maximum of 58.86%. The average EAF for the calendar year to date is 56.59%.
To put these energy availability factor numbers in perspective, Eskom promised South Africans it would reach an EAF of 70% by March 2025.
On 22 January 2023, Eskom chair Mpho Makwana said they had embarked on a turnaround journey to improve plant performance and reduce load-shedding.
They set an energy availability factor target of 60% by March 2023, 65% by March 2024, and 70% by March 2025.
He explained that if the EAF can be improved to around 70%, load-shedding will be a thing of the past, and South Africa will have electricity security.
“It will take at least two years to improve the energy availability factor from the current 58% to 70%,” Makwana said in January 2023.
Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati also told South Africans that load-shedding would be history by the end of March 2025.
He explained that Eskom implemented an extensive two-year maintenance plan in March 2023 to end rolling blackouts.
“At the end of March 2025, that’s when the plan should have been executed,” Nyati said earlier this year.
“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister, myself, and the CEO, and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding.”
However, Eskom has failed to meet its own energy availability factor targets, which shows that things are not well at the power utility.
Instead of meeting its 70% EAF target by March 2025, Eskom’s performance is lower than the planned March 2023 target of 60%.
The latest Eskom performance data
Chris Yelland, energy analyst and EE Business Intelligence MD
Yelland posted the latest EAF, planned maintenance outage (PCLF) and unplanned outage (UCLF) trends for the 2025 year to date.
Since January 2025, Eskom’s EAF varies from 54.22% to 58.86%, with an average of 56.59%.
He explained that Eskom’s lower-than-expected EAF raised concerns over load-shedding during winter.
“EAF has been pretty flat for the year to date, averaging 58.85%, which is much lower than forecast in the Generation Recovery Plan,” he said.
“For the last two weeks, the energy availability factor has dropped below the EAF for the same period last year.”
“If this trend continues and the EAF does not significantly increase as demand increases with the onset of colder weather, we are likely to experience some load-shedding.”
Yelland explained that the EAF will rise with decreased planned maintenance outages in the coming months.
He also hoped that unplanned outages would decline and other developments would improve Eskom’s power supply.
“We expect the return to service of Medupi Unit 4 by the end of April 2025, which will reduce the UCLF if successful,” he said.
Kusile Unit 6 has also been synchronised to the grid. However, it is undergoing commissioning, so it will not provide reliable power for the next 5 months.
These developments will increase Eskom’s energy supply in due course and reduce the probability of load-shedding.
However, Kusile Unit 1 is out of service until the end of June 2025 for flue gas desulphurisation plant reinstatement.
Koeberg Unit 1 at South Africa’s only nuclear power station is also out of service for containment building overpressure leakage testing.
“So, I think the situation remains tight and we may experience intermittent load-shedding in the months ahead,” Yelland said.
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