The most violent cities in South Africa

The South African Cities Network (SACN) has published its latest report on the state of crime and safety in cities in the country, outlining the crime and violence trends within South Africa’s major metros.

The report, now in its ninth year, illustrates the changes and trends in crime levels over time, revealing what SACN says is a “challenging picture” for safety in the country post-Covid-19.

The group assessed and analysed crime data as reported by the South African Police Service (SAPS) covering city-level precinct data from the Cities of Johannesburg, Cape Town, eThekwini, Ekurhuleni, Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay, Manguang, Buffalo City and Msunduzi.

SACN noted that SAPS data does not show crime levels on a city-level, so the group compiled its data based on precinct-level data within the boundaries of each respective city for its analysis.

This was then assessed against the mid-year population estimates published by Stats SA for the years covered to determine the crime rates, expressed as a number per 100,000 people.

Most violent cities

It is important to consider both the raw number of crimes taking place as well as the rate per 100,000 in determining the extent of crime levels and trends.

This is because a highly populated city like Johannesburg would obviously have more crimes recorded, but a less populated region could still have a higher crime rate.

When looking at murder, for example, the sheer number of murders in cities like Cape Town, eThekwini and Joburg far outweigh those seen in places like Msunduzi – yet the murder rate in the latter is higher than the bigger metros.

In terms of the number of murders, Cape Town ranks as the country’s most violent city, recording 3,165 murders in 2022. This is followed by eThekwini (2,815) and Joburg (2,121).

Total Murders

When expressed as a rate (per 100,000 people), however, the picture shifts.

Here, Nelson Mandela Bay is ranked as the most violent city in the country with 80 murders per 100,000, followed by Msunduzi (71 per 100,000) and eThekwini (70 per 100,000).

Murders per 100,000 people

If one were to balance the two measures, eThekwini and Cape Town stand out for having both extremely high murder numbers (2,815 and 3,165, respectively) and high murder rates (70 and 68 per 100,000, respectively).

Why people kill

The SACN said that different factors are likely to drive increases in murders in different geographical localities.

For example, in wealthier cities with high economic activity, murder is often driven by residential robbery or hijacking.

In contrast, increased gang activity or conflict could be the leading cause in certain poorer urban areas.

“It is, therefore, essential to identify precisely what specific factors are at play in particular murder hotspots. For example, multiple murders (two or more victims) also drive the murder rate again, specifically in KZN, Gauteng, Eastern Cape and the Western Cape.”

Some of these murders relate to retaliations or revenge attacks as part of inter-group violence. In other cases, the motives may relate to vigilantism, taxi violence or gang violence.

A South Africa problem

While South Africa’s main metros draw a lot of violence, the problem persists throughout South Africa.

The SACN noted that, internationally, murder is considered a robust (although imperfect) comparative measure of violence because murder incidents are considered one of the most reliable crime statistics, as the police record most incidents.

South Africa’s murder rate of 42 per 100,000 people is seven times higher than the international average and more than three times higher than the average for the African continent – an alarming indictment.

“Since the advent of democracy, murder and attempted murder have mostly declined. However, this changed in 2011/12, after which these crime types recorded a notable upward trend,” SACN said.

A longer-time perspective shows that South African murder levels nationally have not been below 30 per 100,000 since at least the 1970s.

“This is considered very high by global standards. Only a handful of countries record murder rates at this level.”

“Comparative global research shows that a very strong predictor of a country’s level of crime and
violence is its level of inequality as measured by its Gini coefficient. South Africa is one of the most unequal countries in the world, if not the most unequal.

“Addressing inequality must no longer be considered an abstract and long-term ideal,” the group said.

source:The most violent cities in South Africa – BusinessTech