South Africa carrying a ‘dirty’ secret

South Africa is one of the world’s largest coal-producing countries in the world – and it may be emitting up to fourteen times more coal mine methane than it officially discloses.

This is according to a report published by clean energy think tank, Ember, which has given the country a reporting confidence score of only two out of six.

South Africa was fingered as one of three countries (including Indonesia and Germany) with some of the largest discrepancies in reported and independently estimated active mine methane emissions.

Methane (CH4) is produced during coalification (the process of coal formation) and is the primary contributor to the formation of ground-level ozone, a hazardous air pollutant and greenhouse gas.

“Methane is accelerating climate change this decade, and yet we have no idea of the scale of the issue,” said methane analyst Dr Sabrina Assan.

According to a report by Climate Transparency, South Africa’s total greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 59% (1990–2019). In the same period, its total reported methane emissions increased by 30%.

The confidence level in coal mine methane reporting is determined by a score ranging from 0 to 6. This score is based on evaluating three categories – recency of reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), similarity to other independent estimates, and the reliability of the methods used to estimate emissions.

A major contributing factor to the score is that the country last submitted its methane emissions estimates to the UNFCCC back in 2017. The report also says that 97% of emissions come from countries that use standard emissions factors for whole regions rather than directly measuring the methane actually emitted by mines.

“It is shocking that the vast majority of mines are allowed to operate without measuring what they emit,” said Assan. “Closing the information gap between estimated and emitted emissions is the first step to cutting methane emissions, which is the strongest lever we have to slow climate change in the short term.” she added.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that a 75% reduction of fossil fuel methane by 2030 is required for the world to remain on a pathway aligned with their agreed goals of limiting temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

According to the International Monetary Fund, “South Africa (the largest greenhouse gas emitter on the African continent) has ambitious climate mitigation goals.”

South Africa has consistently backed global agreements to move away from fossil fuels to counter climate change by ramping up investment in renewable energy. The most recent commitment made by the country was at the recent United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in December in Dubai.

The COP28 deal was backed by Minister of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment Barbara Creecy, saying that “for the first time, we have language which calls for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

Back in 2019, South Africa piloted its Just Energy Transition Partnership at COP26, aimed at helping developing countries transition towards renewable energy. The government later announced its Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP), which planned a R1.5 trillion (US$80 billion) investment into renewable energy, green hydrogen, and new energy vehicles.

The country’s plans to move towards renewables have faced numerous obstacles. From resistance from civil society and coal, oil, and gas lobbies to the country’s most recent energy plan, the government’s ‘going green’ policy may not be moving at the pace it would have liked – and agreed to.

The government’s energy plan in 2019 had a considerable emphasis on solar and wind energy, which has drastically gained momentum over the past several years.

However, according to the Department of Mineral Resources, around 77% of South Africa’s primary energy needs are provided by coal and “is unlikely to change significantly in the next two decades owing to the relative lack of suitable alternatives to coal as an energy source.”

The country’s most recent energy plan has considerably less of a focus on solar and windenergy.

Reasons for this include delayed decommissioning of Eskom’s ageing coal-fired power stations and about 6 gigawatts (GW) of new gas-to-power plants as the country attempts to crawl its way out of an energy crisis.