The Real Reason China’s Economy Is In Crisis

Jan 29, 2024
China is facing a spiralling debt crisis and a period of deflation which could very well end their 45 years of economic growth and reform.

And there isn’t a simple reason why this is happening, but rather a compounding of policy decisions, unexpected spread of disease, market euphoria, lies, and mistakes.

This video includes a history of China’s economy, its recent economic problems including the real estate collapse, stock market stagnation, and pandemic aftermath, and a deep dive into the current and ongoing debt and deflation crisis in 2024.

TIMESTAMPS
INTRO 0:00
45 YEARS OF GROWTH 1:16
STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISE 4:17
CRISIS AFTER CRISIS 5:05
HIDDEN DEBT CRISIS 10:29
DEFLATION SPIRAL 13:47
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China’s Real Estate Collapse Has Only Just Begun, Argues Brian McCarthy

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:35 The Chinese Financial System Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme
05:17 The Property Bubble In China Is Popping (It’s Still In Early Stages)
11:21 How The Chinese Banking System Works: Window Guidance -Forward Guidance
27:02 VanEck Ad
37:52 Views On The Chinese Stock Market
38:12 The Chinese Yuan (RMB) Must Be Devalued In Order To Stimulate The Chinese Economy
47:11 U.S. China Trade Policy, Under President Biden and Under President Trump
52:03 Much Of China’s Bank Equity Is “Going To Be Wiped Out”
57:32 Why Would Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Not Stimulate Its Economy And Avoid Major Slowdown?
01:04:25 McCarthy’s Long-Term Thesis On China: “They Will Go The Japan Path”
01:11:37 China’s FX Reserves
01:14:06 Why Can’t China Reinflate The Property Bubble?
01:17:31 Closing Thoughts On China
01:19:46 Macro Implications Of China’s Slowdown On Global Economy
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Evergrande: the end of China’s property boom

Mar 10, 2022 #Evergrande #borrowing #migration
The rapid expansion of China’s property sector was powered by a great migration from the farms to the cities – and built on cheap credit. The FT tells the story of Evergrande, the most indebted property developer in the world, which now stands on the brink of collapse. It’s a story that changes the outlook for China’s position as the locomotive of global economic growth. But is this China’s Lehman Brothers moment?
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Is China’s economy in serious trouble? | Counting the Cost