The real reasons Medupi and Kusile were delayed — and did not stop load-shedding-Myles Illidge

Former president Thabo Mbeki said Eskom has been hiding the “bitter truth” about its Medupi and Kusile power stations and claims the current power crisis would have been avoided if the power utility stuck to its timelines.

In a recent speech, Mbeki details how Eskom’s failure to complete the required geotechnical work resulted in the Medupi power station sinking into the soil when construction started.

The former president alleges that the company contracted to prepare the Medupi site had failed to conduct this critical test, increasing costs significantly and resulting in substantial delays.

According to Dentons, the law firm appointed by Eskom to investigate the company, the failure to carry out the geotechnical work led to changes in the foundations, delaying the project by 12 to 18 months.

Then, instead of awarding turnkey contracts for the construction of the power stations, Eskom awarded 34 contracts at Medupi, 46 at Kusile, and 27 at Ingula.

This was despite the power utility supposedly reducing its skills and capacity to execute large construction projects.

Dentons said the decision to award multiple contracts at each power station came from Eskom, leaving the responsibility of managing the overall project with the power utility.

Construction on Medupi and Kusile commenced in 2007 and 2008, respectively, and they were set to be completed by 2014.

Numerous delays followed and pushed these dates back. Construction on Medupi was expected to be completed in 2023.

However, the power station’s unit 4 generator suffered an explosion shortly after reaching commercial operation. Its return is now slated for September 2024.

Kusile is expected to fully contribute to the national grid in 2026. It is already producing power, but not with all six generation units fully operational.

Mbeki argues that if South Africa discounts the “deliberately engineered 2008 national load-shedding”, there were no rotational power cuts until 2014.

Therefore, if Eskom had kept to the 2014 timeframe for completing Kusile and Medupi, South Africa would not be experiencing the current power crisis.

It would likely also have saved Eskom and South Africa a lot of money. Initially, budgets of R79 billion and R81 billion were set for constructing Medupi and Kusile, respectively.

However, the Eskom board approved budget revisions in 2020, assigning R145 billion for Medupi and R161.4 billion for Kusile.

Some energy experts don’t agree with these figures. In 2019, energy analyst Chris Yelland said he was disturbed by the misinformed, outdated, and incorrect figures being reported for the cost of the power stations.

He said even Eskom executives had admitted that the figures were outdated and that the actual costs were significantly higher.

At the time, Yelland estimated that Medupi’s total cost amounted to R234 billion, while Kusile’s construction costs had reached a whopping R460 billion.

This was before the explosion at Medupi and the collapse of a flue gas duct at Kusile that knocked out three generating units. Both of these events will have added to the overall cost of the projects.

Mbeki recently made allegations that the first load-shedding experienced in 2008 was “completely unnecessary” and “deliberately engineered from within Eskom”.

He described the event as a national shutdown and said claims that it resulted from the government failing to listen to Eskom’s request for more generation capacity were false.

“It was a national shutdown. The mines closed for a whole week. It was a serious crisis,” Mbeki said.

“The argument was that Eskom had told the government in 1998 that there must be investment in new generation capacity and infrastructure.”

“The narrative was that the government did not listen, which caused the blackouts in January 2008. That story was false. That story was cooked up,” he added.

Instead, the real cause of South Africa’s first load-shedding was poor leadership and the failure of Eskom managers to replenish coal.

National Rationalised Specifications Association chair and former Eskom executive manager Vally Padayachee gave his version of events in a recent interview.

He said Eskom was running out of coal at its power stations, where it aimed to keep 20 days’ worth of supply stockpiled.

Padayachee said the usual 20 days’ worth of coal stock provided a buffer to dry out supplies before they could be burned in coal-fired generators.

At higher stock levels, less of the coal in the middle and bottom of a pile gets wet when it rains.

He said the lack of coal and inability to burn wet coal resulted in a generation deficit, resulting in the country’s first load-shedding.

source:The real reasons Medupi and Kusile were delayed — and did not stop load-shedding (mybroadband.co.za)