Eskom has drastically improved its energy availability factor, helped by lower breakdowns, helping it suspend load-shedding for two months.

South Africa’s last day of load-shedding was on 26 March 2024. The 60-day stretch is the longest power-cut-free period since 2021.

The load-shedding reprieve was so unexpected that many South Africans speculated that it was an election ploy.

Even former Eskom CEO André de Ruyter said the lights were on because the power utility was burning billions in diesel to power its open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs).

“If the lights are on, well done. However, they are on because we are pouring money into diesel at a rate of knots,” he said.

Considering the near-permanent load-shedding over the last year, it is understandable that South Africans were sceptical.

However, Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati dismissed notions that anything nefarious was behind the utility providing uninterrupted power.

Nyati said the load-shedding reprieve was a result of Eskom’s improved performance, which was due to a plan approved and implemented in March 2023.

The plan focused on accelerating and executing planned maintenance in partnership with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

The OEMs had expertise in the equipment used at Eskom’s power plants, which helped ensure better performance following maintenance.

Taking generators offline for maintenance means Eskom had to burn diesel to power its OCGTs to compensate for the lost generation capacity.

Nyati said it was a difficult time for Eskom. However, the improved plant performance is now starting to show results.

All the important metrics, such as unplanned outages, the energy availability factor, and generation availability, are trending upward.

The Eskom board said it is confident that the permanent end of load-shedding is near, with the utility’s performance stabilising and gradually improving.

“What is important is that our people at Eskom have done what many people thought they could not do,” Nyati said.

“Many people thought this was a dead horse, and this horse now appears to be running.”

MyBroadband examined each component of Eskom’s performance. It shows that Nyati’s claims are accurate and dispels speculation that it is an election ploy.

Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati

Maintenance

Between January and March this year, Eskom implemented significantly more maintenance on its power plants than over the same periods since 2021.

This is seen in Eskom’s planned capacity loss factor (PCLF), which shows how much maintenance it is doing.

As expected, the planned maintenance started to decline as the country entered winter. This is by design.

Unplanned outages

Unplanned outages, also known as unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF), have been trending downward in 2024.

UCLF refers to breakdowns and power losses due to unforeseen circumstances. The lower the UCLF, the better.

Eskom’s unplanned outages increased over the past few years, which showed that power stations experienced more breakdowns.

In 2024 year-to-date, Eskom’s unplanned outages reached the lowest level since 2021.

This shows Eskom’s planned maintenance has improved the performance of its power station fleet.

Energy availability

Eskom’s energy availability shows the power utility’s total installed capacity minus all unavailability, like maintenance outages and unplanned outages.

It is similar to the energy availability factor and measures the total electricity that Eskom has available to supply.

In 2024, Eskom maintained an upward trend for its energy availability. It is now the highest in four years.

The combination of normalised maintenance levels and decreasing unplanned outages has enabled Eskom to have more energy available to be supplied.

Higher maintenance at the beginning of the year may have been the cause for less breadowns and more energy being available to the public.

Demand

Electricity demand has declined significantly in 2024 because of increased solar PV installations at households and businesses.

The lower electricity demand has helped Eskom to limit or reduce load-shedding in recent weeks.

This is one aspect that Eskom has little control over. However, demand directly impacts load-shedding.