Home › Forums › A SECURITY AND NEWS FORUM › The World That Was-Europe, Israel, Nato, North Korea, Putin, Russia, Ukraine, USA by Adrian Olivier
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2024-06-24 at 20:15 #453137Nat QuinnKeymaster
Adrian Olivier,
Sunday 16 June – Sunday 23 June:
On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dissolved his war cabinet – a week after opposition leader Benny Gantz withdrew from the cabinet. The war cabinet, set up five days after the Hamas-led terrorist attacks against Israel on October 7, had five members: Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, opposition leader Benny Gantz, and two “observers,” Ron Dermer and Gadi Eisenkot. Decision-making in the war will move back to the government’s main security cabinet and Netanyahu will “hold smaller forums on sensitive matters,” according to Israeli officials. Netanyahu is reported to have told ministers that he no longer needed the war cabinet after Gantz’s resignation. Analysts say the dissolution of the war cabinet is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on the war and is a political move to snub Netanyahu’s allies on the far-right. These allies include National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir who has been eyeing a seat in the war cabinet since Gantz’s departure. Reports in the Hebrew-language media suggested Netanyahu intends to make key decisions in meetings with his own advisers, excluding Ben-Gvir, before presenting them to the security cabinet.
On Tuesday, Sweden’s parliament gave a greenlight for a Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) with the United States. The defense agreement received the support of a large majority: 266 MPs voted in favour, 37 against, and 46 were absent. The main opponents were the Left and Green parties, who criticized the agreement for potentially leaving the door open for US nuclear weapons to be stored on Swedish territory, thereby further escalating tensions in the region. These parties were also opposed to Sweden joining NATO in the first place. The U.S. now has the right to deploy units, store military equipment and carry out military exercises on Swedish territory. U.S. military personnel in Sweden may move freely and are obligated to obey U.S. law. Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson has said with the DCA, Sweden “can receive early, swift and effective military support from the United States in a deteriorating security situation.” “The agreement acts as a deterrent and is stabilizing. It reduces the risk of war breaking out and makes Sweden safer,” he added. This decision – and Sweden’s joining of NATO in March – does away with two centuries of Swedish neutrality. The agreement opens up a new route to move supplies to the Baltic Sea region through Finland and Sweden instead of relying on vulnerable land routes near the Polish-Lithuanian border with Russia that can easily be cut off.
Early on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin arrived in North Korea for a summit with Kim Jong-un, his first visit to the Hermit Kingdom since 2000. Putin was welcomed by huge welcome banners and Russian flags. On the eve of his visit Putin thanked Kim’s government for its support. “We highly appreciate that [North Korea] is firmly supporting the special military operations of Russia being conducted in Ukraine,” Putin wrote in an article published in the Rodong Sinmun, the newspaper of the ruling Workers’ Party, on Tuesday. He added: “We will develop alternative mechanisms of trade and mutual settlements that are not controlled by the West, and jointly resist illegitimate unilateral restrictions. And at the same time we will build an architecture of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia.” North Korea’s state KCNA news agency said Putin’s visit proved that ties between the two countries “are getting stronger day by day” and would lend “fresh vitality to the development of the good-neighbourly cooperative relations between the two countries”. The Russian delegation to Pyongyang reportedly included the defence minister, Andrei Belousov; the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov; the heads of the Russian space agency and its railways, and Putin’s point man for energy, the deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak. Putin and Kim signed an agreement that pledges mutual aid if either country faces “aggression,” a strategic pact that comes as both face escalating standoffs with the West. Both leaders described it as a major upgrade of their relations, covering security, trade, investment, cultural and humanitarian ties. During Putin’s visit to North Korea, Kim said the two countries had a “fiery friendship,” and that the deal was their “strongest ever treaty,” putting the relationship at the level of an alliance. He vowed full support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Putin called it a “breakthrough document” reflecting shared desires to move relations to a higher level.
On Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech that militant leaders from Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and other countries have previously offered to send tens of thousands of fighters to help Hezbollah, but he said the group already has more than 100,000 fighters. “We told them, thank you, but we are overwhelmed by the numbers we have,” Nasrallah said. Nasrallah said the battle in its current form is using only a portion of Hezbollah’s manpower, an apparent reference to the specialized fighters who fire missiles and drones. With tensions on the Lebanon-Israeli border escalating in recent weeks, there could be an all-out war and Nasrallah’s position may change.
On Thursday, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby confirmed that the U.S. had made the “difficult but necessary decision” to prioritise delivering Patriot and NASAM missiles to Ukraine. Deliveries to other countries will be delayed so that Kiev can maintain its missile interceptor stockpiles “at a key moment in the war.” “We’re going to reprioritise the deliveries of these exports so that those missiles rolling off the production line will now be provided to Ukraine,” he added, saying the shipments were expected to begin in the late summer. “This . . . demonstrates our commitment to supporting our partners when they’re in existential danger,” Kirby said. President Biden said several nations had agreed to send Patriot and other air defence systems to Kiev and that other countries expecting deliveries would have to wait because “everything we have is going to go to Ukraine until their needs are met.”. Kirby confirmed that countries that had already ordered the missiles would receive them, but “on a delayed timeline”. Washington has briefed all affected countries privately; air defence exports to Taiwan are not expected to be affected. The White House looked at re-sequencing the delivery of air defence systems as well as interceptors and was open to doing so. But ultimately it opted to pursue a “parallel” and “intensive” effort to get Ukraine additional existing air defence systems, a senior White House official said. Romania on Thursday decided to donate one Patriot system to Ukraine, according to the office of President Klaus Iohannis. Zelenskyy thanked Romania for its “crucial contribution”. Spain and Greece also have Patriots in their arsenals but have declined to authorise transfers of launch systems to Ukraine. Poland has said its Patriots are protecting the infrastructure used to ship Western weaponry across its border into Ukraine, and thus are already deployed to help protect the war-torn country. In addition, Italy said this month it would send Kyiv a second SAMP/T air defence system, a European-made alternative to the Patriot. The US-made Patriot systems are Washington’s most advanced air defence weapons. They consist of a radar system and mobile launchers that can fire interceptor missiles at incoming projectiles or aircraft. Zelenskyy has called them “the most effective air defence system in the world today” and said they were capable of shooting down all Russian missiles, including ballistic ones. He said in April that “to protect Ukraine completely, in the future, Ukraine would need 25 Patriot systems with six to eight batteries each”. He and foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba have since told NATO allies that Ukraine needs a minimum of seven Patriot systems to effectively cover the country’s airspace. Ukraine has at least four Patriot systems at present, provided by the US and Germany. Since Zelenskyy made a plea for additional deliveries this spring, Germany has said it would send an additional battery, and the Netherlands announced an initiative to send another based on components supplied by multiple countries. Biden then approved the deployment of another Patriot air defence system to Ukraine last week. The Patriot systems and their interceptor missiles have helped protect crucial government buildings and critical infrastructure in Kyiv and other cities across the country. In at least one instance, a Patriot missile downed a Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft over the Sea of Azov in January, according to two Ukrainian officials with knowledge of the operation and Colonel Rosanna Clemente, assistant chief of staff at the US 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command, speaking on a panel this month. Recommended Wally Adeyemo We need to put sand in the gears of the Russian war machine Russia has knocked out or captured more than half of Ukraine’s power generation, causing the worst rolling blackouts since its full-scale invasion in 2022. Moscow’s latest wave of missile and drone attacks has targeted Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including thermal and hydroelectric power plants, which are much harder and more expensive to fix, rebuild or replace. “Addressing the ammunition shortfalls and coverage gaps in Ukraine’s air defence is essential for the country to defend critical infrastructure, and no less important than stabilising the front line,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Russian strikes have significantly damaged Ukraine’s non-nuclear power generation capacity, and Russian drones are increasingly able to target Ukrainian positions behind the front lines because of a lack of air defence coverage.”
On Thursday, the Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced that Norway, Sweden and Finland “today agreed to establish a military transport corridor across North Norway, North Sweden and North Finland,” at a meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kirstersson and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. “It will enable us to quickly move personnel and equipment from Norwegian ports through Sweden and to Finland,” he added in a statement. The three Nordic leaders began their two-day meeting on Wednesday in the Norwegian town of Bodø to discuss security and military cooperation. The town is home to Norwegian Joint Headquarters. “The fact that Norway, Sweden and Finland now are together in NATO is good for Norwegian, Nordic and allied security,” Støre said. “We can cooperate about defending each other in a completely different way,” he explained. The new west-east corridor will enable NATO to rapidly move forces across the Nordic region. The cross-border logistical route was tested this spring when U.S troops, vehicles and equipment were shipped to the Norwegian town of Narvik and subsequently transported into nearby Sweden and ultimately into northern Finland. The troops and equipment belonged to the US Army 3rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team of the 10th Mountain Division that deployed in the allied exercise Immediate Response 2024 (IR24). The north Norwegian town of Narvik has a major seaport and railway connection to Sweden and is an important logistical hub serving the major Swedish Kiruna iron mines. Also in attendance were the defence ministers of the three countries. “We are now developing regional defence plans for this area, and take the measures needed for the plans to be successfully implemented,” Norwegian Defence Minister Bjørn Arild Gram said.
On Saturday, the South Korean Navy said that the U.S. Navy’s aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt arrived at the Busan Naval Base. The Roosevelt is in South Korea to take part in three days of naval exercises with South Korea and Japan. “[The aircraft carrier’s arrival] demonstrates the strong combined defence posture of the South Korea-US alliance and their firm resolve to respond to the escalating threats from North Korea,” the statement read.
On Sunday, The Wall Street Journal reported that technology rivals Apple and Meta have discussed an Artificial Intelligence (AI) partnership. Facebook’s parent has held discussions with Apple about integrating Meta Platforms’ generative AI model into Apple Intelligence, the recently announced AI system for iPhones and other devices, according to people familiar with the matter. Apple is a latecomer to generative AI and has announced it will be working with partners. When Apple Intelligence was unveiled earlier this month at the company’s Worldwide Developers Conference, OpenAI’s ChatGPT was announced as the company’s first partner. “We wanted to start with the best,” said Apple software leader Craig Federighi, noting that ChatGPT “represents the best choice for our users today.” He also said Apple wanted to integrate Google’s Gemini as well. While ChatGPT usage is expected to double with the Apple partnership, OpenAI’s infrastructure costs are expected to grow 30% to 40%, said Gene Munster, a longtime Apple analyst and managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. Munster expects 10% to 20% of Apple users will opt into paying for a premium AI subscription to a product like ChatGPT. That could mean billions of dollars for AI companies that integrate successfully with Apple’s new platform.
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