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Ramaphosa gives load shedding warning
President Cyril Ramaphosa has again warned South Africans that the country should not be lulled into a false sense of security around the energy grid, saying the return of load shedding cannot be ruled out.
Delivering an address at the budget vote for the Presidency for 2024/25, the president said that his office has been making great strides in ending load shedding and securing the country’s grid, but the battle was still far from over.
“We have been working closely with independent power producers in steering their projects through to the construction phase, contributing significantly to the reduction in the severity of load shedding,” he said.
“By alleviating load shedding, improving the performance of the logistics system, reducing the cost of data, improving water supply, and enabling the country to attract the skills it needs, the reforms already underway will provide a significant boost to the economy in the medium term.”
However, while regulatory changes have enabled substantial new investment in electricity generation, and the country will this week hit 120 days—almost four full months—without load shedding, the president said it is “too soon to claim victory”.
“Our electricity system is still vulnerable, and we cannot yet rule out a possibility of further load shedding,” he said.
The president has repeated this sentiment for months, even as power utility Eskom celebrates each new milestone in the extended suspension of outages.
Writing in his weekly letter to the public at the start of July, when the country hit the 100 day milestone, the president warned that the pause “is not a reason to relax”.
The president’s warning also echoes that of Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa and other experts in the field, who have all cautioned South Africans to not take their eyes off the ball.
Ramokgopa said that Eskom could suffer setbacks, which could lead to load shedding returning.
“We are still working on the reliability of these machines, and that’s why you can’t speak with great confidence that load-shedding is behind us,” he said.
Ramokgopa added that the view that load shedding is over is a false claim that can’t be substantiated.
Former Reserve Bank deputy governor Kuben Naidoo warned that load shedding would likely be reintroduced once the mining industry begins to ramp up production.
“I think half of the reason we don’t have load shedding is because the mining sector is in a deep recession,” Naidoo said.
“If you switch on the mining sector, load shedding will return, so we still need to continue investing in renewable energy and other energy sources to break that constraint.”
Energy analyst Chris Yelland also expects load shedding to return when a cold spell hits and electricity demand increases.
Yelland said that while the intensity and regularity of load shedding may have significantly reduced, power cuts will still happen.
Eskom’s performance
According to Eskom, the utility has managed to hold it together during the winter period so far, chalking up 85 consecutive days of power supply during the colder months so far.
“The last time South Africa experienced such a prolonged load shedding suspension was nearly four years ago, between 8 September 2020 and 11 December 2020,” it said.
The utility said that six of its power stations have recorded an Energy Availability Factor (EAF) greater than 70%—namely, Kusile, Kendal, Matimba, Matla, Majuba and Grootvlei—and the group’s operations continue to surpass planned expectations.
Overall EAF increased to 62.1%, versus the March 2024 target of 65%.
Current unplanned outages have averaged 12,800MW (since 1 April 2024), significantly lower than the winter 2024 forecast.
The winter forecast, published on 26 April 2024, anticipated a likely scenario of unplanned outages at 15,500MW and load shedding limited to Stage 2.
Notably, breakdowns have decreased to 26.85% for the financial year to date (1 April 2024 to 18 July 2024), improving from 34.89% in the corresponding period last year. This is still higher than the 20% limit imposed by regulator Nersa.
Eskom’s expenditure on Open Cycle Gas Turbines has also improved. Between 1 April and 18 July, spending on OCGTs was R3.36 billion, generating 491.36GWh approximately 71% (~R8.08 billion) less than the R11.44 billion spent last year over the same period for 1,899.95GWh.
The OCGT load factor for 1 April to 18 July 2024 has also improved, and continued to be much less at 5.50% compared to last year’s figure of 21.27% over the same period.
It is worth noting, however, that the OCGT load factor is still higher than the 1% imposed by Nersa in previous years—although it is below the 6% “emergency” concession the regulator allowed during the worst of load shedding in 2023.
Eskom’s performance has been boosted by units at Kusile coming online, with more capacity expected to return in the last half of the year. Operations have also been helped by a shift in the country’s demand profile, with energy users turning to alternative power sources and moving away from the utility.
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