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South Africa in for a rude awakening By Daniel Puchert
Eskom’s failure to properly maintain its ageing coal-powered generation fleet is returning to haunt the power utility, which could result in increased load-shedding, despite leadership saying it will soon be a thing of the past.
This is according to energy analyst Professor Samson Mamphweli, who told 7o2 that he understands why analysts have said that the worst of load-shedding is yet to come after planned power outages returned over the weekend.
“Other analysts are saying that the worst is yet to come because they are looking at how difficult it is becoming to maintain Eskom’s coal fleet,” Mamphweli said.
“Eskom managed to maintain it to a certain extent thanks to the operation generation recovery plan. Breakdowns were reaching 18GW, and this plan helped bring it down to 11GW.”
Maphweli noted how expensive maintaining the old fleet is, and the adverse effects of this cost are realised in how much South Africans are charged for electricity.
In 2024, Eskom applied to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) for a 36.15% increase in electricity tariffs that Mamphweli says was influenced by the revenue needed to maintain the fleet.
However, Nersa only approved a 12.7% tariff hike for the 2025/26 financial year, effective from 1 April 2025.
It also approved a 5.36% increase for the 2026/27 financial year and a 6.19% increase for 2027/28.
Maphweli also pointed out that he was surprised load-shedding returned over the past weekend because Eskom’s winter outlook predicted no planned power outages until 31 March this year.
“What happened was that Eskom expected about 4,000 MW of generation to come back online by 13 January after being out of service, which did not happen,” he said.
“And then they lost additional units, which necessitated the implementation of load-shedding because they had used up all of their reserves, including diesel, within seven days.”
The loss of capacity included two of its best-performing coal-fired power stations — Lethabo and Mathimba.
Lethabo coal-fired power station in Vereeniging. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg.
Eskom’s top brass says differently
However, Eskom board chair Mteto Nyati is confident that load-shedding will be history by the end of March 2025, when the power utility has returned several large generating units to service.
Nyati said this after the power utility announced Stage 3 load-shedding from 17:00 on Friday, 31 January 2025, until 06:00 on Sunday, 2 February.
“We had this plan. This was a two-year plan which was adopted in March 2023. We have been implementing that plan,” he said.
“We are now like two or three months away from the end of that two years. End of March 2025, that’s when the plan should have been executed.”
“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister, myself, and the CEO, and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding,” added Nyati.
He explained that some specific actions must be completed between now and the end of March.
“Kusile Unit 6. It has to be synchronised. Already, it is very much in line,” said Nyati. “Medupi Unit 4. That has been off. It is coming back.”
He said Eskom’s work to return these units, combined with the maintenance it has already completed this summer, will allow for a load-shedding-free winter.
The sudden load-shedding on Friday ended an over 300-day break from rotational power cuts in South Africa. Eskom suspended load-shedding again at 06:00 on Sunday, 2 February 2025.
The utility described the events leading up to Friday’s implementation of load-shedding as “the perfect storm.”
Eskom Group executive for generation Bheki Nxumalo said boiler tube failures were the most common issue causing generating units to go offline.
The power utility’s CEO, Dan Marokane, said load-shedding was required over the weekend to restore water levels at Eskom’s pumped storage schemes and diesel stocks for its open-cycle gas turbines.
Eskom executives and the electricity and energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, are adamant that implementing load-shedding was a temporary setback.
source:South Africa in for a rude awakening – MyBroadband
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