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Adrian Olivier,
Sunday 5 January – Sunday 12 January:
On Sunday, Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen said he would meet with the right-wing Freedom Party (FPÖ) leader Herbert Kickl on Monday after coalition talks between the incumbent Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Social Democrats (SPÖ) collapsed and the Chancellor resigned. Coalition talks have dragged on for months unsuccessfully. The FPÖ is the largest party in Austria, with 29% of the last vote, but until now, no parties have been willing to enter a coalition with them. That now changes, with the FPÖ now having a mandate to form a government. On Monday, after their meeting at the presidential palace, Van der Bellen said he had tasked the Freedom Party leader with holding talks with the People’s Party to form a new government.
On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation pending an internal Liberal Party vote for a new leader. Trudeau said Parliament, which had been due to resume on January 27, would be suspended until March 24. The timing will allow for a Liberal Party leadership race. All three main opposition parties have said they plan to topple the Liberal Party in a no-confidence vote when Parliament resumes, so a spring election after the Liberals pick a new leader is almost assured.
On Monday, U.S. lawmakers certified the election win of Donald Trump and JD Vance. Their inauguration will take place on January 20.
On Tuesday, Donald Trump held a press conference during which he said he is prepared to use military and economic coercion to wrest back control of the Panama Canal and to acquire the Arctic island of Greenland. He also said he was willing to use economic coercion to absorb Canada.
Starting on Tuesday, raging wildfires surrounded Los Angeles, destroying hundreds of homes and stretching firefighting resources and water supplies to the limit, as more than 100,000 people were ordered to evacuate.
On Thursday, U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, said Russia has suffered over 700,000 casualties since it invaded Ukraine in 2022. Austin said in November 2024 alone, Russia lost nearly 1,500 troops daily, a pace that has stretched its military resources to the breaking point. “Volunteers cannot make up for these stunning losses,” Austin added. “The Kremlin has been reduced to scouring Russia’s jails and coercing contract soldiers.” He said, in a desperate bid to sustain its offensive, “Moscow has even rushed troops from North Korea into a war that they don’t belong in.” His last point does not align with U.S. Intelligence reporting that the presence of North Korean troops was at the request of Kim Jong Un – likely as a means of blooding his troops in preparation for a future war on the Korean Peninsula.
On Thursday, the UN raised its growth forecast for the global economy this year, anticipating a boost to investment as central banks continue to lower their key interest rates. In its quarterly report on the outlook for the global economy, the U.N. said it now expects output to rise 2.8% this year, having previously forecast an expansion of 2.7%. That upgrade reflected higher forecasts for growth in the U.S. and China, which more than offset more modest expectations for the eurozone and Japan. The U.N. expects the global economy to grow at a slightly faster pace of 2.9% in 2026. But its relatively positive assessment hinges on a continued slowdown in inflation, which some economists warn might not happen if governments – like the incoming Trump administration – impose barriers to international trade.
On Thursday, BlackRock announced it was pulling out of a UN-sponsored climate initiative, called the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative. The initiative aims to support the goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. That is a remarkable U-turn for a company considered the poster child of the environmental, social and governance investing movement. It is yet another sign of the impact Donald Trump has on American business culture.
On Thursday, Lebanon’s Parliament elected U.S.-trained Gen. Joseph Aoun as president. Lebanon has not had a president for two years. Hezbollah has lost much of its power in conflict with Israel and its patron Iran is reeling from successive blows. Ninety-nine out of 128 members of Parliament voted for Aoun in the second round of voting, according to the Parliament speaker. In the first round, Hezbollah didn’t vote for Aoun, which it said was a message that its consent was still needed. Aoun, who has headed the Lebanese military since 2017, takes power as the country looks to pick up the pieces from Israel’s intensive bombardment and invasion of parts of southern Lebanon that it launched in response to Hezbollah’s attacks. “I pledge to execute my role as the head of the armed forces to insist on the right of the state to have a monopoly over weapons,” Aoun told Parliament upon being elected.
On Friday, the U.S. Labor Department reported 256,000 new jobs in December and an unemployment rate that edged down to 4.1%. Last month’s gain in nonfarm payrolls was the biggest since March and well above the 155,000 jobs that economists had expected, according to a Wall Street Journal survey. The good jobs numbers mean a Fed interest rate cut in its January 28-29 meeting is unlikely. Stocks traded lower, a sign that investors are focused not on the strong U.S. economy but on what the jobs report means for the Fed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were all down more than 1%. The Dow was on pace to give up all the gains it has made since the presidential election. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes jumped as high as 4.79% from Thursday’s 4.68%. That put bond yields on track for their highest levels in more than a year.
On Friday, Donald Trump was sentenced to no punishment for covering up hush money paid to a porn star. Justice Juan Merchan, who handed down the sentence during a half-hour proceeding, said the extraordinary protections of the presidency insulated Trump from more substantial penalties. “Donald Trump, the ordinary citizen, Donald Trump, the criminal defendant, would not be entitled to such considerable protections,” Merchan told Trump. Trump appeared virtually from his Mar-a-Lago residence, sitting with American flags behind him. He stared intently into his camera with his lips pursed and said he was innocent. “It’s been a political witch hunt,” the president-elect said. “It was done to damage my reputation so I would lose the election.”
On Friday, Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede said at a Copenhagen press conference that he was ready to talk with Donald Trump about Greenland. Egede said he was not yet in contact with Trump.
On Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, along with 183 shipping vessels that have transported Russian oil in an attempt to squeeze the Kremlin’s revenue. Many of the tankers have been used to ship oil to India and China as Western sanctions and a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some tankers have also shipped oil from Iran, which is also under sanctions.
On Saturday, the AfD formally nominated co-leader Alice Weidel as its candidate for chancellor in next month’s election at a convention in the German town of Riesa. Thousands of left-wing protesters gathered outside, delaying the proceedings. Weidel, who was among those held up, thanked delegates for “defying the left-wing mob and getting here.” Polls show AfD in second place ahead of the February 23 election, with about 20% support. Weidel declared her support for remigration of foreigners. Friedrich Merz, candidate for the mainstream conservative opposition Union bloc that leads polls with about 30 percent, is currently favoured to become the next chancellor.
On Sunday, Italy’s government ordered the release of Iranian businessman Mohammad Abedini, who is wanted by the U.S. Justice Department, as part of a deal coordinated with Donald Trump that secured the release last week of Italian journalist, Cecilia Sala, detained in Tehran. Abedini is expected to be freed soon, possibly within days, following Italian Justice Minister Carlo Nordio’s decision to cancel his arrest. The U.S. accuses Abedini of illegally exporting advanced navigation systems for drones to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which were used in a drone attack in Jordan a year ago that killed three U.S. soldiers and wounded 40 others. Iran has said the allegations against Abedini are false. Italy’s Justice Ministry cited several legal grounds for why Abedini should be released: The U.S.’s accusations against him, including violations of U.S. export laws, either had no exact equivalent in Italian criminal law, which would be needed for extradition or no evidence had been presented.
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