What developments in US politics mean for South Africa

[Nat Quinn]

Something interesting is happening in the United States. There are some signs that the present political situation could be the peak of the worst for them and that a real new dawn may be over the horizon.

This is relevant to us as South Africans because America has a powerful influence on the world especially on countries like ours. And it should also be noted that things can still get much worse before they get better for Americans and therefore the rest of us.

Firstly, Donald Trump’s Supreme Court appointments are yielding dividends. The new conservative majority has delivered a series of important court rulings, the latest being the ruling outlawing the use of race in college admissions. Unlike South Africa, the US does not have government-enforced affirmative action, but US colleges (what we call universities) have enforced their own versions.

While a principled liberal cannot just be happy that race will not be used as a factor, we have to look deeper and see if this interferes with the right of private institutions to use race as a factor if they choose, and it does seem to be the case. Of course, while from a liberal perspective, a ruling preventing federal or state governments from funding colleges that have race as part of their admission criteria would have been better, this ruling would still have positive effects if you consider the works of economists like Thomas Sowell and the harm done against the Asian and Jewish communities by these racial admissions policies.

Regardless of race

More importantly for us perhaps, over time, as the benefit of accepting the best regardless of their race is seen, American politics and academia will change enough to stop promoting racial policies abroad. Many of our struggles with critical race theory in schools would not be an issue if this ideology were not being spread by American academia abroad. Admittedly that may be too optimistic, but at the very least this change will add to the comparative data on the effects of racial policies and hopefully strengthen the case of those who oppose affirmative action.

The conservative Supreme Court has also had other victories, including limiting the power of regulatory agencies to impose new regulations without explicit congressional authority, and perhaps the biggest yet, overturning Roe vs Wade, which gives American states the freedom to protect the right to life of unborn babies.

The US has had Republican presidents before Donald Trump, so why have his judicial appointees been so effective? I believe it comes down to two things: the approach Donald Trump took in selecting judges, and the rule change introduced by Republicans in the Senate to allow a simple majority to confirm Supreme Court appointments.

Rather than asking the electorate to trust his judgement, Trump released a list of potential judicial appointments ahead of time. This list was vetted by conservative judicial lobby groups and Trump stuck to this list while in office.

The most infuriating thing for woke leftists must be that this conservative supreme court is led ideologically, after the death of Antonin Scalia, by a black man who is a descendant of slaves and a former Black Panther, Clarence Thomas. To hear Justice Thomas speak, it seems that being a conservative was a natural progression from his radical black politics. A problem with liberals in a social as well as classical sense is their tendency to see black people as perpetual victims and people for whom things must be done, a problem that Steve Biko also noted.

Presidential election

The other development worth following in the US is the progress of the 2024 Presidential election. It looks likely that Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will win the Republican nomination. On the Democrat side, precedent says Joe Biden will win the nomination but it is interesting to see the rise of Robert Kennedy Junior (or RFK Jr as he is also known) as challenger, the nephew of former President John F Kennedy and son of a former senator, Robert Kennedy. He currently has the support of between 15 and 20% of Democrats, according to polls. It is almost unheard of for a sitting President to face such a primary challenge.

The rise of Kennedy and DeSantis reflects a fledgling backlash against the establishment response to Covid. Governor DeSantis made Florida an island of sanity by keeping the state open when most other states chose the lockdown route. RFK Jr was a staunch opponent of lockdowns in the Democrat Party, and especially of the vaccine and the attempts to force people to take it.

RFK Jr’s opposition to vaccines goes far beyond the Covid vaccine, which is a more heterodox view than many Covid vaccine sceptics hold. But he deserves to be listened to and his views considered. More important for us is his view of American foreign and defence policy. Mr Kennedy is the highest-polling anti-war candidate in both of the major parties.

While RFK Jr may come from a family considered to be part of American political royalty, he is really the most serious threat to the establishment since perhaps his father and uncle, who were both assassinated under strange circumstances. He believes that the US should close all its overseas military bases and focus on a strong homeland defence which would save billions (perhaps two thirds) from the defence budget to be used for domestic programmes aimed at helping the American middle class.

His campaign is based on the theme of breaking what he calls the corrupt merger of state and corrupt power, whether this is in the form of the American military industrial complex, the capture of regulatory agencies by the corporations they are meant to be regulating, or the billions in bailouts routinely given to large corporations. Of course, no one who loves liberty will agree with everything that RFK Jr believes in, but on the major issues he gets it absolutely spot on (despite his hostility to firearm ownership like all Democrats, although he believes the school shooting phenomenon has more to do with pharmaceuticals than guns).

Disruption

The Republican Party experienced a disruption when Donald Trump won the Republican nomination; the Democratic party will experience a similar disruption if Robert Kennedy ends up winning the nomination, or at the very least winning anything close to the number of delegates that Bernie Sanders won in 2020.

This disruption would bring that party closer to the centre from its current position on the far left by American standards. A less interventionist America will be better for the world; when the most powerful country on Earth engages with trade rather than bullets this can only be a good thing.

All of these changes show just how deep American democracy is and just how embedded the love of freedom is in American culture, compared to a country like South Africa. I find myself being jealous and hopeful that American lovers of freedom will prevail. Perhaps then we will have a chance, too.

 

SOURCE:What developments in US politics mean for South Africa – Daily Friend

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