Is Ramaphosa done? Like markets, foreign media can’t seem to decide just yet

[Nat Quinn]

Nobody – notably including the traders that can move the value of the rand and South African bond prices – seem to know.

News of the finding by an independent panel that Ramaphosa has a case to answer on Phala Phala sent the rand sharply down initially, before it recovered, and then entered “wait and see” territory.

Much like Ramaphosa himself, investors and analysts seemed to have been caught flat-footed by the scathing nature of the report, and unable to immediately quantify the likelihood of what comes next. What are the odds that Ramaphosa voluntarily steps aside, or is pushed aside by his party, or is forced out via formal parliamentary proceedings, each of which carries its own implications for markets?

On Thursday, there were few straight answers to that question, and certainly not for foreign audiences, a review of global coverage showed.

When Ramaphosa replaced Jacob Zuma, the initial simplified take for foreign audiences was that an anti-corruption leader was taking over from one multiply accused of corruption. That image was only marginally eroded by early reports of a stack of dollars stashed in a sofa and strange interactions with neighbouring countries.

Those reports were largely confined to the “Africa” or “International” news sections of foreign publications, not deemed necessary to present as directly important to readers in South Africa’s major-trading-partner countries.

That was also the case on Thursday; the Phala Phala panel findings were widely carried, but not necessarily with the kind of prominence that would be given to a sequence of events that could topple a President.

In the United Kingdom, Ramaphosa’s recent state visit to that country (and hence his mingling with royals) got the attention of the popular tabloids. But the new developments on Phala Phala have not attracted them to a significant extent yet, making for a lack of screaming, definitive headlines.

More serious mainstream publications, on the other hand, are following the political nuance closely.

The influential Financial Times reported on a Presidency “plunged into crisis overnight” and said the report had been “a body blow to Ramaphosa’s image” – but stopped short of predicting exactly what will happen next. Neither it, nor the BBC, dwelled on Ramaphosa’s previous promises to fight corruption within his party and beyond, previously a popular bit of context.

The UK’s The Times told its readers in the third paragraph of its article that some analysts “have cast doubt on whether Ramaphosa can survive the crisis even if MPs do not support a formal impeachment process against him.”

But that is not the conclusion that some American audiences were left with, thanks to widespread use of parts of a Reuters report by the likes of Voice of America, and in other parts of the world such as Australia and by global outlets such as Al Jazeera. The analysis there was that the “chances of impeachment are slim given the ANC’s dominance of Parliament, where it holds 230 seats, or nearly 60% of the total, and typically votes along party lines.”

Other US outlets struck a more ominous – but still questioning rather than predictive – tone about Ramaphosa’s future. The New York Times said “Ramaphosa now confronts the deepest crisis of his presidency, with his future as South Africa’s leader in grave doubt”, before pointing out that “Mr. Ramaphosa faces other challenges, as well.”

The article shared an international-news page in the newspaper with one headlined “Buckingham Palace Staff Member Resigns Over Remarks to Black Guest”.

Readers of the Bloomberg take on events, such as those of the South China Morning Post, got to the nuance early, with a fifth-paragraph mention of the possibility that the ANC could – but would not necessarily – ask Ramaphosa to step down as an interim measure, regardless of what happens in formal proceedings outside the party.

And then there are those who may just be left confused, such as the listeners of a New Zealand radio station that believes, for some reason, that the Phala Phala panel report was leaked.

Genuinely leaked details of events now, such as Ramaphosa’s apparent willingness to resign, have not made it into the mainstream foreign press yet.

Is Ramaphosa done? Like markets, foreign media can’t seem to decide just yet | Business Insider

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